Wednesday, April 27, 2016

TV Handing Election to Trump

   Even before results were in from Pennsylvania Tuesday night the national television had declared Donald Trump the winner.
   It wasn’t the first time. And then some spent an hour talking about Trump was a winner, declaring themselves fools for thinking otherwise.
   Hillary Clinton had a 58-41 lead over Bernard Sanders but the networks delayed declaring her the winner. They didn’t mention their mysterious exit polls.
   These were the same polls that declared John Kerry the winner of George W. Bush. Some felt people lied to polltakers because they were ashamed.
   Four years earlier former Vice President Al Gore got half a million votes more but lost due to the electoral college.
   One major “narrative,” to use a newly popular word, that has changed. But it is not talked about.
   Democratic voter turnout, meanwhile, described as very small, and they were at the start.
   Now they outnumbered Republicans in New York and Pennsylvania.
  It may have been that since Clinton was the presumptive winner few bothered in the early months. And there was a sexy race among Republicans.
   Now exit polls find that Democrats are “energized” by the Sanders-Clinton race.
   Even more likely to energize Democrats is for Clinton to choose a woman as her VP. It received almost no publicity on television during the weekend.
   It finally was mentioned on Tuesday, but pundits focused on Trump picking a woman.
  Elise Jordan, a Republican commentator on MSNBC, was quickly cut off when she said Trump couldn’t beat one woman, let alone two.
   The Washington Post said:
“It doesn’t matter if Sanders continues his candidacy until the last votes are cast in June. What matters is that he quits gracefully, and there should be every expectation that he will, for a simple reason: Sanders is not a fool.”
  Simply recycling unproved claims that Hillary is dishonest - most apparently based on discredited Benghazi claims – is boring. It won’t write headlines. Journalists want new things. Trump will try to plagiarize previous claims.
  Although CBS is on record as saying Trump makes money for them, that doesn’t mean they have chosen to elect him. They chose to make money. They don’t care who the president is.
 Hillary already has a YouTube channel. She needs to update it hourly, not every two days. It would take little work. Most of it would be just quote the network when they report on something other than Trump.
  Her tech staff can do a split screen when Trump’s fraud trial opens on the same day as the Cleveland Republican Convention. The judge could grant a delay but they were loathe to do this in cases that have been going on for years.
    If there was any doubt what Sanders would do he answered it by saying he would "do everything that I can to make certain that Donald Trump is not elected president."

Monday, April 25, 2016

Say Goodbye to Bernie

   Hillary Clinton may win all five primaries Tuesday, four of them are closed. Only Democrats can vote.
   Sen. Bernie Sanders hasn’t won one primary in which only Democrats can vote.
  As many as 2 million people could vote in Pennsylvania, the most populous state. Clinton beat President Obama in 2008.
   In 2012, when Obama had no real competition only 600,000 voted.
Primaries also are being held in Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Clinton leads in polls in most.
   Clinton already has nearly a 3 million lead in the popular vote. Sanders declined to withdraw.
   Media outlets are undecided whether Sanders wants to use his popularity to influence the party’s platform, or whether he will fight all the way to the competition.
   Doing both will be difficult. His supporters are making it even harder with snide remarks, bringing up former President Bill Clinton’s relationship with Monica Lewinsky. Many pundits think that will backfire.
  It also is hypocritical for Sanders to complain that closed primaries are preventing him from winning. On one of his websites he said closed primaries are needed to prevent “political sabotage.” Why should Republicans or Democrats be allowed to disrupt the vote of the other party?
   As for Millennials being wedded to Sanders, Politico reports Clinton has a 36-point advantage when asked to choose between her and Trump.
   Former Vermont Gov. Madeleine Kunin, who thrashed Sanders in the gubernatorial race 30 years ago told USA Today her former competitor will endorse Clinton.

   Clinton reportedly is already looking for a vice president, and created a buzz during the weekend when she said it could be another woman.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Biggest Surprise of Presidential Campaign

The leading candidate in the Democratic party, a strong candidate to be the first female president of the United States, is reportedly considering choosing a woman as her vice president.
So we’d get two in the White House at once.
Even more surprising, Hillary Clinton’s list includes a woman who many had wished had run against her, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. What better candidate to deal with the kind of bankruptcies, Donald Trump.
Warren specialized in bankruptcies as a law professor at Harvard. Trump has a lot of explaining to do about how he could manage multiple bankruptcies while families who lost everything in the 2008 recession couldn’t afford the lawyers’ fees charged for them.

The web was full of stories considering the possibilities, not only of Warren as a candidate, but that Clinton might choose another woman.
Several were on lists published by sites as powerful as the New York Times.
 “Regardless of how things shake out in the weeks to come, having two women on a single ticket would be an electrifying, historical occurrence.” Vanity Fair said.
Sen. John McCain's choice to make Sarah Palin his VP pales with this.
It is not too soon for Clinton to start finding a running mate. Next week she is likely to add hundreds of thousands of votes to her popular vote lead over Bernie Sanders.
Sanders strategy of focusing on caucuses got him much publicity on the national tv. But by early April he was behind Clinton by 2.5 million votes, according to a review by Pulitizer-winning site Politico.
Since then added nearly 300,000 votes in the New York primary and will win three or four of the primaries in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and Rhode Island. She leads by double digits in the biggest, Pennsylvania.
She is being called the presumptive nominee, and no matter how many paths pundits can find for Sanders to stay in competition not even Hawkeye in the Last of the Mohicans could do it.
 Perhaps most ironic is that the nation has been hearing non stop that Citizens for United, the Supreme Court case that removed all rules of corporate political spelling, Sanders is still going. All on small donations from private citizens, he claims.

Sunday, April 17, 2016

If the Democratic presidential race was an NFL event

   Viewers would have turned off long ago if the pundits covered the Democratic presidential race like the NFL. Everyone knows where teams benefit from the schedule, and when they are likely destroyed by it.
   Bernie Sanders has feasted on lightly attended caucuses that few people understand, and even fewer have the several hours needed to attend one to demonstrate support for their candidate. Many of them are open, meaning anyone, Democrat, Republican or independent can vote.
   He won two primaries, Wisconsin and Michigan, both of which allowed non-Democrats to vote. On one of his web sites Sanders said open primaries can be used for “political sabotage,” by allowing non-party members to determine its future.
  In Sanders’ words, posted on a web site:
  “Why do some states have closed primaries and caucuses while others do not?
Closed primary elections and caucuses exist as a defense mechanism against political sabotage. Some states’ political parties are concerned that voters, instead of using their vote to support the candidate with whom they agree the most, will vote for a weak candidate in the opposing political party. That is to say, these individuals may subvert the opposing political party’s power as a way to advance the potential of their own political party. By hosting a closed primary election, states force individuals in their electorate to register as either a Republican, a Democrat, or another political party, and then participate in only their own party’s caucus or primary election. In this way, both the state parties ensure that they are not undermining each other’s political efficacy.”
   After suffering a string of primary losses that built up Hillary Clinton’s lead to possibly insurmountable levels, Sanders won a series of causes that drew small numbers of votes in small, mostly white states with few minorities. Cable TV called these victories, even when there was a delegate draw in one, Wyoming.
   Not unaware that there was no path to victory, short of an improbable indictment of Clinton, Sanders did what he has in past campaigns: raised the volume. The New York Times reported Sanders has become very combative in past campaigns when he was in difficulty, including a 1986 campaign against incumbent Gov. Madeleine Kunin.
He said things like: “Many people are excited because she’s the first woman governor. But after that, there ain’t much.” Kunin crushed him, getting 47 percent to his 14. Peter Smith got 38.
   Sanders even tried a Hail Mary, flying his family to Rome to shake hands privately with the pope, who said it was only manners to greet him since he was in the path.
   Polling reveals double-digit leads for Clinton in next week’s New York primary, and similar leads in Pennsyvania and California.
   Convention playoffs seem unlikely for what Saturday Night Live called Donald Trump’s cartoon opposite this weekend.

Friday, April 15, 2016

Bernie Becomes Grouch as End Nears

Bernie Sanders “victory” string in obscure caucuses is coming to an end, and it showed in Thursday night’s debate with Hillary Clinton.
Sanders lost it so often he appeared to be imitating the Muppets’ Oscar the Grouch, though he was not standing in a trash can.
The media has hyped the lightly attended caucuses, in mostly white, smaller states, to keep the campaign alive.
Even if the polls prove even slightly accurate in next week’s New York primary – showing Clinton leading by 17 percent – it will take all of the pundits’ 24-hour coverage to resurrect Sanders.
The public may be losing interest, even when the yelling starts. Clinton’s lead has risen to 17 points despite being accused by Sanders, for a day or two, of not being qualified to be president.
“As the primary approaches, the back and forth between Clinton and Sanders hasn’t dramatically changed the New York contest for the Democrats in the last few days,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.
The media has already started shifting the narrative to focus on whether Bernie supporters will stay home on election day. Expect a series of polls taking virtually every possible position.
Some of the same writers have pushed the line that Sanders is bringing out people who don’t usually vote. That could mean Clinton won’t be losing much if they do stay home. The chance of them voting for Donald Trump is virtually zero. If someone else gets the nomination there will be a feast for all writers. What it would mean is entirely unpredictable.
If it is Trump it could be the Republicans are serving the presidency up to the Democrats on a plate.
The combination of support from women, who outnumber and outvote men, could hand one or both houses of Congress over to the Democrats. Hillary would benefit from the prospect of becoming the first woman president.
Daily Show comedian Trevor Noah, commenting on more than 70 percent of women hating Trump, said that included all women, “living and dead…”